In order to reach even 50% vehicle electrification in the United States we need a lot of normies to buy electric cars. The first- and second-adopters have already purchased an EV. The buy-curious have taken the plunge. Now, the extremely average consumers need to start replacing their Honda CR-Vs with electric cars.
My guess in a Morning Dump earlier this year was that the Honda Prologue was going to be a great way for us to test if that third-adopter class was just waiting for one of America’s most trusted brands to finally put out an electric car. It seems that’s what is happening.
Honda, of course, has a robust ICE and hybrid portfolio to fall back on, so it’s not fatal for the company if the Prlogue flops. Nissan, on the other hand, is dealing with one flop after another and is having to beg its dealers to not freak out over the company’s performance. Volkswagen is past begging its workers to help it out, and now flat-out saying it needs more from them.
That’s kind of bleak. Let’s end this Morning Dump with some good news: Trains are back, baby!
Prologue Sales Are Going Up, Up, Up
There’s the great Arrested Development bit where analyst/therapist-turned-actor Tobias Fünke tries to drum up interest in what he’s doing by hanging around the water cooler saying things like “That Fünke is some kinda something” and “I’m tired of hearing how genius that Fünke is.”
Why is the Honda Prologue the ‘most important electric car of 2024’ and why isn’t the Cybertruck or the Daytona or anything else? Mostly because I called it that:
I think GM and Ford have worked hard trying to push their EVs, but the next traunch of people most inclined to buy the current generation of EVs and hybrids are probably looking to buy something from either Toyota or Honda. Toyota has great hybrids but a mediocre EV. Honda has good hybrids and now, it seems, a decent EV.
I’m really curious to watch Prologue sales. Given the current projections, it’s not likely that Honda will sell more than 50,000 of these in 2024, which puts it in the Mach-E territory. That’ll help juice the market, but it isn’t an overwhelming number. But if Honda can be a success with a perfectly fine EV I think it’ll show where the demand is. If it fails and spurs more hybrid growth, it’ll also show where the market is.
Either way, the Prologue is maybe the most important electric car of 2024.
I said “maybe” because I gotta keep a little wiggle room, right?
So far this year, Prologue sales have done a little better than my rosy projections. Honda saw a 14.5% increase in sales in November, led by a big increase in hybrids. The CR-V Hybrid, for instance, now represents a total of 54% of all CR-Vs, just as that model heads for a record year.
And the Prologue? A total of 6,823 were delivered last month, outselling the Odyssey minivan, the Passport SUV, and the Honda Ridgeline. The Prologue has now been on sale for a few months and the company has already moved 25,132 of them. The brand should easily top 30,000 sales this year (well, mostly leases I’m guessing).
Lacking more than quarterly reports it’s hard to say exactly where Honda will end up, but my guess is that the company will deliver more EVs with one single model than Cadillac, Polestar, Toyota, Subaru, Lexus, Genesis, or Audi individually.
A lot of this is because of aggressive leasing, but that’s true of almost every electric car. A more interesting comparison for me is the Chevy Blazer EV, which is built by GM on the same Ultium platform and is comparably priced. In Q3, GM sold roughly 8,000 Blazer EVs for a rate of about 2,700 a month. Even if you add in the cheaper Equinox EV, the selling rate in Q3 for the Blazer EV and Equinox EV combined was about where the Prologue is.
My guess is that sales of the Blazer EV and Equinox EV were up in October and November, so this is one of the comparisons I’ll be watching in January when we finally get everyone’s full-year sales reports.
Overall, this makes me think that the market isn’t quite as soft as everyone tends to think. There are still EV buyers out there. It’s been obvious for some time that pricing is important but, it seems, branding is also important.
Nissan North American Boss To Dealers: ‘We Ask For Your Patience And Understanding’
Nissan is in bad shape. It would arguably be better if it were just a part of Honda. Even if my vision of a combined Nissan-Honda came true, that wouldn’t help the unprofitable dealers stuck with unattractive supply.
The company seems aware things are going poorly and sent off a Thanksgiving memo to dealers, seen by Automotive News:
“We are working diligently to implement turnaround actions and the stability and future value they will bring to valued business partners like you is a high priority for us,” Nissan Americas Chairperson Jeremie Papin said in the Nov. 30 message viewed by Automotive News. ”We are working hard to deliver more details on these action plans. In the meantime, we ask for your patience and understanding.”
In the short- and midterm, Papin said Nissan will focus on three areas: reinforcing the product lineup, stabilizing and rightsizing the business, and driving growth.
“We recognize the actions designed to increase product competitiveness, the core of our business, are highly important to bring Nissan back on the growth track,” he wrote.
Rightsizing the business means reducing production because the only thing worse than 10 Rogues that no one wants to pay MSRP for is 10,000 Rogues that no one wants to pay MSRP for.
VW And Workers Don’t Seem Close To An Agreement
While I don’t think Volkswagen’s troubles are as existential as Nissan’s, the scope of VW’s issues is way more immense. It’s the difference between having one NV200 that’s puking oil onto your driveway and having 60 Jettas all with flat tires.
It’s been assumed that VW is going to have to close plants and lay off workers, which is something the company’s union and works councils have been trying to avoid. The negotiations do not seem to be going well, with VW CEO Oliver Blume and Works Council head Daniela Cavallo seemingly quite far apart:
Cavallo warned of the damage to Volkswagen’s image that the management’s tough approach and constant references to negative scenarios are threatening. “The board is damaging our brand with its behavior,” she said. “I am seriously concerned about the way the board is portraying our company in the press.” With its actions, it is offering a perfect opportunity for ridicule and mockery: “This is causing us massive damage.”
And:
Blume has now announced that he will continue to negotiate and work on “measurable and, above all, sustainable solutions.” At the same time, he emphasized the company’s difficult situation. New competitors are entering the market “with unprecedented force” and often with higher margins. At the same time, the car market in Europe is shrinking. At VW, labor costs must therefore be reduced and capacities adjusted. “We are also streamlining our organizations and creating synergies across the Group,” he said.
This is Cake-levels of distance between the two positions.’
Amtrak Will Have A Record Year
Amtrak has reached a record 32.8 million passenger trips this fiscal year (September-to-September), up 15% over 2023. Hell yeah. I was at least a couple of those trips. The nation’s main passenger rail service has seen a lot of improvements in recent years and is doing this with less capacity.
From Amtrak:
Amtrak achieved an all-time ridership record in Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24), welcoming a historic 32.8 million customers as demand for passenger rail service continues to grow in markets across the nation. Amtrak also invested an unprecedented $4.5 billion into major infrastructure and fleet projects – creating the largest boom in rail construction in Amtrak’s history, putting thousands of skilled Americans to work and jump-starting American manufacturing. Amtrak is seizing the opportunity of strong customer interest and leveraging investments to improve all aspects of the travel experience.
“Breaking our ridership record is just the beginning,” said Amtrak CEO Stephen Gardner. “This record ridership shows that travelers throughout the U.S. want efficient travel options, and we are committed to meeting that demand. Through bold investments, strong partnerships with states and host railroads, and dedicated planning, we are doubling down on our vision to connect more people and communities like never before.”
The federal rail company also only lost $705 million, which is pretty good for Amtrak.
I get this is a car site and we’re enthusiastically pro-car, but trains are cool and it’s better for everyone if we replace a lot of inefficient regional car trips with train travel. A lot of the growth and a lot of improvements are coming in the denser Northeast Corridor because anything beats driving on I-95 or the NJ Turnpike.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
There’s a good TV On The Radio video with cars in it, which I’ll probably share some day, but I woke up in a very “Return to Cookie Mountain” mood this morning, so please enjoy “I Was A Lover.”
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
When was the last time you took a passenger train trip of more than 4 hours? Where? In America?
link